August 15, 2026: Russian leader since 1999, Vladimir Putin's recent polling numbers are slipping, reaching 66 percent in early July, from 66.9 percent a week earlier. Trust in Putin's performance fell from 76 percent to 72 percent. While these are good numbers, the growing Ukrainian attacks in or near major cities and fuel storage, refining and distribution operations are making life difficult for a growing number of civilians. Putin says Russia is winning in Ukraine, but the Ukrainian attacks inside Russia say otherwise.

Regions outside the major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg report growing difficulties obtaining fuel for vehicles and other necessities. In three months, the cold weather arrives and then fuel shortages will mean less heat. What will the government do when that happens? Several rural regions already lack fuel for vehicles. This means Russians must wait in their vehicles for hours, or even days, before fuel is available.

Putin insists that the situation is under control and that Russia will win in Ukraine. Veterans returning from Ukraine say otherwise: that fighting in Ukraine is a death sentence. The Ukrainians are now using ground combat robots, and a growing number of Russian soldiers have been surrendering to the machines and marching off to a more comfortable and less dangerous prisoner-of-war camp. The Ukrainian use of drones in the air, on the ground, and at sea means Ukrainians suffer fewer casualties. Currently, for every Ukrainian soldier killed, eight Russians are lost. Despite the $50,000 signing bonuses and even higher death benefits, fewer Russian men want to commit suicide by going to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasing its drone attacks on Russian economic and military targets deep inside Russia. Soon these raids will consist of over a thousand drones rather than a few hundred. Ukraine has become the world's most prolific drone manufacturer, producing over half a million drones a month. In response to all this, Putin’s advisors are urging him to leave Moscow for a safer location in the Ural Mountains of Central Russia.

These woes are nothing new for Putin. Fifteen years ago, Westerners were annoyed at Vladimir Putin, in part because of his authoritarian tendencies, and the fact that he is genuinely popular with most Russians. One policy that contributes to this popularity is Putin's plan to somehow reconstitute the Soviet Union, which he and many Russians really miss, as the Eurasian Union. This would be similar to the European Union, which some parts of the former Soviet Union are eager to join. Both of these organizations are primarily economic unions that encourage the free movement of goods and trade. The difference is that Russia would be far more dominant than any single nation in the European Union. Moreover, the smaller nations that broke away from the Soviet Union in 1991 no longer want Moscow to dictate to them. The economic benefits of an economic union, however, are an attraction. Then there is the willingness of Russia to back the dictators who run many of the successor states to the Soviet Union. Finally, the Eurasian Union also includes closer, and more peaceful, economic and political ties with China. That's a big plus with Central Asian nations, especially those that border China.

The then-current Russian president Dmitry Medvedev openly admitted that Putin was more popular and effective than any other Russian politician, and he remains an ally of Putin because of that. Some Russian leaders disagree, but they are a small minority. Many others are waiting to see whether Putin can address the lawlessness in the business world, which is forcing many major Russian companies to move their stock listings from Russia to Britain, amid some legal disputes. Corruption in Russia makes its stock exchanges and courts too unreliable. The criminality and chaos are hurting the economy. Fixing all this is a big job for Putin, but even an ally and rival, Dmitry Medvedev, believes Putin has the best chance of pulling it off. Putin is also expected to complete military reforms, something Medvedev has been pushing with growing enthusiasm. Those reforms have been a work in progress throughout the short history of 21st-century Russia. Twenty-six years ago, public support for the war in Chechnya was beginning to slip, with the latest polls giving President Putin a 62 percent approval rating. Most media coverage was negative.